Math 4070 -- Section 201 -- Probability and Statistics
Fall 2019


Instructor: Dan Klain
Lectures: TTh 11am in Olsen 401
Office Hours: TTh 2:00pm and by appointment
Office: OH 416C

Required Text: Ross,
A First Course in Probability,
Pearson
6th or later editions are acceptable.

This course will focus primarily on probability theory, along with a sampling of important applications of that theory to statistical inference. We will cover most of chapters 1-8 of the text, and selections from later chapters as time allows.

Homework sets will be announced on this page each week. The homework will not be collected. However, questions related each problem set will appear in weekly quizzes, usually given each Thursday (see below for weekly details). Additional take-home quizzes may be occasionally assigned. The homework will account for the most substantial part of your learning, so you should take the homework very seriously. If you do the homework you will also find the quizzes and exams much easier.

Quizzes are open book, open notes.

Exams are not open book (see below).

Calculators are permitted during quizzes and exams, but use of computers, phones, or other electronic devices is not permitted. It is not permitted to use a "calculator app" on some other electronic device.

Attendance policy: Attendance will not be taken, but you are of course responsible for everything covered in every class. There will be no make-ups for missed quizzes. Instead I will drop the lowest quiz score for each student. Make-ups for exams require official documentation (doctor's note, letter from coach regarding away games, letter from the Dean of Students, etc.).

Academic Integrity: Academic dishonesty is prohibited in all programs of the University, and sanctions may be imposed on any student who commits an act of academic dishonesty. Details on UML policy can be found here.

Examinations: There will be three exams and a final exam. Exams are closed book. However, you are allowed to bring one double-sided 8.5" x 11" sheet of notes.

Tentative Exam Schedule

Exam #1 -- 09/26/2019
Exam #2 -- 10/24/2019
Exam #3 -- (see below)

Final Exam: 12/18/2019 at 3:00pm


The final grade will be determined by the quiz average (approx 25%), the 3 exams (approx 15% each), and the final exam (approx 30%). Exact percentages may vary depending on the incidence of quizzes (due to school cancellations, etc.).

Homework assignments will be announced weekly on this page. Check periodically for updates.

Weeks #1-2
Readings: Ross, Chapter 1

Problem Set:

There will be a brief in-class quiz on this material given near the end of class on Thursday, September 12.
This is now a take-home quiz due in class on Thursday, September 19.

Week #3
Readings: Ross, Chapter 2

Problem Set:

There will be a brief in-class quiz on this new material given near the end of class on Thursday, September 19.
There is also the take-home quiz from last week due in class on that same day.

Week #4
Readings: Ross, Chapter 3

Problem Set:

The solutions to recent quizzes are here: pdf and here: pdf

The first exam is on Thursday, September 26.
You may bring a one sheet of notes, double-sided, US letter sized (8.5 x 11 inches). Calculators will be permitted.

Note: The calculator must be only a calculator, and not a laptop, cell phone, or other electronic device that happens to have a calculator.

Week #5
Readings: Ross, Chapter 3 (continued) and beginning of Chapter 4

Problem Set:

The solution to the first exam is here: pdf

There will be a brief in-class quiz on this new material given near the end of class on Thursday, October 3.

Week #6
Readings: Ross, Chapter 3 (continued) and Chapter 4 (continued)

Problem Set:

The solution to Quiz #3 is here: pdf

There is an extra credit assignment due at the beginning of class on Thursday, October 10.

There will also be a brief in-class quiz on this new material given near the end of class on Thursday, October 10.

Week #7
Readings: Ross, Chapter 4 (continued)

Problem Set:

There is no meeting on Tuesday October 15 because of the holiday schedule.
There is a take-home quiz due at the beginning of class on Tuesday, October 22.

Week #8
Readings: Ross, Chapter 4 (continued)

Problem Set:

The take-home quiz from last week is due at the beginning of class on Tuesday, October 22.

The second exam is on Thursday, October 24.
You may bring a one sheet of notes, double-sided, US letter sized (8.5 x 11 inches). Calculators will be permitted.

Note: The calculator must be only a calculator, and not a laptop, cell phone, or other electronic device that happens to have a calculator.

Week #9
Readings: Ross, Chapter 4 (continued)

Problem Set:

There will be a take-home quiz on Poisson distributions distributed near the end of class on Thursday, October 31 and due the following Tuesday (Nov 5).

The solution to the second exam is here: pdf

Week #10
Readings: Ross, Chapter 5

Problem Set:

There is a take-home quiz on Poisson distributions: pdf
due at the start of class on Tuesday, November 5.


Week #11
Readings: Ross, Chapter 5

Problem Set:

There is a take-home quiz on continuous random variable distributions: pdf
due at the start of class on Tuesday, November 12.

There will also be a brief in-class quiz on new material given near the end of class on Thursday, November 14.

Week #12
Readings: Ross, Chapter 6

Problem Set:

There will be a take-home exam on new material distributed on Tuesday, November 19 and due on Tuesday, November 26.

Weeks #13-14
Readings: Ross, Chapter 6 and beginning of Chapter 7, Sections 1-4

Problem Set:

There is a take-home exam pdf
due at the start of class on Tuesday, November 26.

There is a take-home quiz due in class on Tuesday, December 3 (pdf).

Last Weeks
Readings: Ross, Sections 6.4, 6.5, 6.6, 7.5

Problem Set:

There is an optional extra credit assignment due at the beginning of class on Tuesday, December 10.

There will also be a brief in-class quiz on conditional density (see also Problem Set #13 above) given near the end of class on Thursday, December 12.

The solution to the third exam is here: pdf

A list of review topics is here: pdf

The Final Exam is at 3pm on Wednesday, December 18, 2019.
You may bring a one sheet of notes, double-sided, US letter sized (8.5 x 11 inches).
Calculators will be permitted and are recommended.

Note: The calculator must be only a calculator, and not a laptop, cell phone, or other electronic device that happens to have a calculator.


My homepage (including contact information) can be found here.